Will a free trading group help us?
How about we create our own!
many years of EA coding for other traders (also for many of you) I
think, I have seen it ALL. I have seen people creating EA’s and
strategies based only on one chart screenshot or just because they have
read something on a ‘forum’. Obviously it doesn’t work!
Now I’m fully convinced that the only proper way to go is automatic strategy generation and testing.
But this method is also not perfect, it is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Learning curve takes several weeks, finding robust strategies takes several days, testing takes up to several months.
So why not to combine our efforts?
Here is my idea: I want to create our own private forum, our own trading group where we can share ideas, experiences and knowledge. A real gentleman’s (and ladies) club for serious traders.
YOU CAN JOIN HERE: Coensio’s Algo-Trading Group
Note: Forum access is now free for (later 10euro/month)
I want to concentrate only on automatic strategy generation. This is how ‘they‘ do it. This is how EA vendors find their strategies, this is how professional quants and algo-traders design their strategies.
So if there is any chance you are already using StrategyQuant platform, and you want to join this club, just let me know (reply to this email). I am looking for experienced traders and also for forum moderators.
I’m still learning this platform especially the new ‘SQ X‘ version, so the only thing I can promise you, is that I will share my knowledge for free. Starting from 2019 I will also prepare some kind of free algo-trading course.
For traders which do not know what I am talking about, please read my review of this platform: HERE. I also provide 20% discount + other bonuses for people that want to purchase this platform, but first download a demo version and see if this way of working will work for you.
ATTENTION: If you will use my discount code you will get ArrowHunterEA and CoensioMt4Charts for free: COENSIO-20-OFF-ZSHXY
You can read more on my blog. or join here:
Coensio’s Algo-Trading Group
Coensio MT4 charts
Start monitoring your trading systems!
This tool allows you to generate equity graphs and to monitor all interesting
statistics of every trading system on your MT4 account.
Click on the figure below to see it in action!
This tool is an MT4 compatible indicator which can be attached to any chart to any timeframe. The generated report is a .html file, which is stored locally in MT4 folder.
Features & calculated statistics
- Generates charts of all (or selected) trading systems by Magic number.
- Total Profit, DrawDawn and WinRate.
- Wins, Draws and Losses.
- Long and short trade profits.
- Swaps and commissions.
- Daily and hourly Profit/Loss overview.
- System selection by Magic Number, LotSize or Start Date
- Possibility to add custom comments for each system!
This tool is an MT4 indicator that can be attached to any MT4 chart using any timeframe. On each new candle the indicator generates a full report which is stored as a .html file in local MT4 directory.
Yes a DEMO version of this indicator is available in the download link below. After a short registration you can test it with your favorite indicator on AUDUSD pair. DEMO version is limited to 3 systems only!
After purchasing the CoensioMt4Charts indicator, you will get your own License Key which will be linked to your personal MT4 account. This means 1 License Key is valid only on 1 MT4 account, at a time. You can always change your MT4 accounts, by sending me an email (without any additional costs).
In theory MT4 platform supports up to 100 different charts (=100 different tradings systems).
The CoensioMt4Charts indicator has been successfully tested on: Firefox, MS edge, Chrome and Safari browsers. It should work on any other moderrn browser.
Test or Purchase
Purchase NOW and get all future releases for free!
- EmailAddr: Your valid email adddress.
- LicenseKey: Your valid product LicenseKey.
- GraphFile: Name of .html file output. E.g: ‘MyCharts’
- CalcFromThisDate: Start date from which statistics are generated.
- MagicsToCheck: Magic numbers that need to be analysed. E.g: ‘2335,33344,234,…’. Empty = All systems.
- FilterByLotSize: Allows to filter all trades by specific lot size. E.g.: 0.1 or 0.01.
- TimeHourOffset: Time offset in hours of the MT4 broker, used to synchronise time visible on charts.
CLICKBANK® is a registered trademark of Click Sales, Inc., a Delaware corporation located at 1444 S. Entertainment Ave., Suite 410 Boise, ID 83709, USA and used by permission. ClickBank’s role as retailer does not constitute an endorsement, approval or review of these products or any claim, statement or opinion used in promotion of these products.
© 2018 www.coensio.com
FxMagnetic indicator review
+4500pips in the last 100 signals.
This time I will have a closer look at the FxMagnetic indicator. According to the makers of this indicator, the signals provided by this indicator are very accurate. The indicator has several different versions, each version is fine-tuned to specific currency pair (which makes sense from the algo-trading point of view). Of course everything is based on statistics and probabilities, but for example the current GBPJPY version of this indicator ‘predicted’ last 100 trades with the resulting profit of +4500pips and only <20% draw-down. Pros of FxMagnetic indicator:
- Well designed indicator based on statistics
- Each version is fine tuned to specific currency pair
- Non-repainting signals
- Indicator provides best possible settings for each time-frame (no configuration needed)
- Indicator provides targets for TakeProfit and StopLoss levels
- Impressive profit/loss statistics and very low draw-down
- Reasonable price
Cons of FxMagnetic indicator:
- The indicator buffers are well protected, backtesting is not possible
- Each purchased license works only on one specific currency pair
This all makes this indicator very interesting trading tool. Watch the video below to see an example of FxMagnetic on EURUSD pair.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RysU9UhfWy4 But is this indicator really profitable? Hard to say…the statistics look very promising and I know the coders behind this product and I know those guys know what they are doing. So let’s test it!
Automating the FxMagnetic with ArrowHunterEA.
For our forward test of FxMagnetic indicator we will use our ArrowHunterEa, which has been updated with dedicated ‘FxMag’ mode. In this special mode of operation the ArrowHunterEa will automatically recognize the trading signals of FxMagnetic and place the orders together with the corresponding TakeProfit and StopLoss levels. For this specific test we will use GBPJPY version of FxMagnetic. See it in action here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlUCbw71G7o
I will monitor the results very closely and keep you up to date. This specific version of ArrowHunterEa is free for all user that already have a valid ArrowHunterEa license. You can download it HERE. Greets, Chris www.coensio.com
Free Video course: How to prevent curve-fitting
And how to properly optimize trading systems
is the most common mistake made by inexperienced algo-traders. This is
because the MT4 based optimization is nothing else but pure
Curve-fitting is a fancy name for cherry-picking (or ‘falsely’ connecting the dots), where you optimize your system using all possible combinations of all parameters and you select only the best results, the highest profits or the best looking equity charts.
This topic is so huge I can write a book about it. But let’s keep it very pragmatic for now. Because you are here to see some results. So, without going into details here is the approach that I use to keep cure-fitting minimized:
- Keep the number of optimized parameters as low as possible: each new parameter which is optimized adds an additional degree-of-freedom (or dimension), in which equity graph can be curve-fitted.
- Following the logic of point 1: avoid complex trading systems with many parameters and dependencies. Keep it simple!
- Split your historical data range in: ‘in-sample’ and ‘out-off-sample’ periods: the in-sample period is the longest period where you run your optimization. The out-of-sample period is the period where you will validate your settings after the optimization.
- Make sure you have sufficient amount of historical data. Note that you need at least 100 trades in your in-sample period, which is minimum required amount of trades needed for statistical significance. More is better.
- Optimize for profit-growth stability not for the maximum profit. In the end you need to see a straight equity line with stable increase over the whole testing period. (During optimization the ArrowHunterEa returns a custom ‘profit-factor’ in OnTester results column, which determines the stability of growth)
- Perform a robustness test on optimized parameter set. This can be done by manual ‘monte-carlo’ like simulation using the MT4 tester.
know it is a lot of info in one post. That is why I have prepared a
free video course for you with an real life example of strategy
Altcoin maximum price calculator
This tool calculates the maximum theoretical price estimation for monero coin, with an assumption it will reach the same
marketcap as Bitcoin with a similar supply level. The equation is:
MaxPrice(monero) = MarketCap(BTC) / (SupplyLevel(BTC) * MaxSupply(monero))
Note1: if “Supply” is equal to “MaxSupply” like for monero coin, then SupplyLevel(BTC) is set to 1
Note2: if “Supply” > “SupplyLevel(BTC)”, then SupplyLevel(BTC)* MaxSupply(monero) = “Supply”
Usage: https://www.coensio.com/wp/altcoin-price-calculator/?ticker=TICKER, or click one of the tickers below:
GROWTH POTENTIAL (ROI) RANKING TABLE TOP 200:
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The best crypto exchange
(Europe-based, trusted cryptocurrency market)
(Europe-based, trusted cryptocurrency market)
Step 1: Create your free account
Go to LiteBit.eu website and click “Create new account”:
Fill your personal information:
Complete your registration by clicking activation link in your email box:
Note: In some cases before purchasing your first crypto–coins you need to complete at least “Tier 1”, verification. During “Tier 1” verification the system will send you a SMS with a short code you need to enter in order to proceed with purchasing crypto’s. You can complete “Tier 1” step, under “My account > Verification & Limits” page. Click here for direct link.
Step 2: Getting a free cryptocoin wallet
A “wallet” is a tool which is connected to an online decentralized ledger (database) and it is used to store, send, or receive digital currency. The safest option is to get an offline wallet for each given currency type. However this requires installing many tools (since each cryptocurrency has its own wallet software) and storing information on external USB drive. The easy way is to use free online wallet inside your LiteBit.eu account. Go to “My Wallet” tab and click on “Deposit” button for selected cryptocoin.
After that you need to hit “generate” button in order to generate a new wallet address for selected currency. Note: in all cases you can always transfer your funds from
LiteBit.eu account to your offline wallet or a wallet software installed on your PC.
Step 3: Purchasing your cryptocoins
To purchase any desired cryptocoin just go click on currency symbol in the main window, for this example: XRP icon:
Then fill in the required information like: amount of coins to buy, your payment method, your wallet address and hit “Next”.
Note: Do not forget to check the “I agree” checkbox.
After that you can proceed with your usual payment routine:
Step 4: Checking transaction status
To check if your transaction is finished, you can go to “My account > Order History”:
Note: Depending on the crypto currency it can take few minutes to few hours to complete the transaction! Remember that each transaction need to be confirmed by crypto currency “miners” and it can take some time.
The LiteBit.eu is an easy, fast and reliable currency exchange market. It is based in europe which gives another level of confidence when compared to Asian based exchanges. I hope this guide will help you buy you first cryptocurrency without any problems.
P.S.: if you want to thank me by sending me 1 ripple ($0.20), my ripple address is:
How to buy Ripple (XRP)? And why?
(click HERE if you want to buy other cryptocurrencies)
(click HERE if you want to buy other cryptocurrencies)
However, for most people (even for forex traders) investing in cryptocoins is still something unfamiliar and out of reach. For those who are familiar with Bitcoins, it is probably already too late to “jump in”, Bitcoin is one huge bubble with the price sky-rocketing towards $10.000! I wish I’ve purchased Bitcoins at $0.20/BTC few years ago;) But I didn’t…so what are the alternatives?
One of the most interesting developments in the world of cryptocurrencies is coin named: XRP (or the Ripple coin). This new coin is developed by a company with the similar name: Ripple. So what is so different about this new type of cryptocurrency? Here are the main characteristics:
- It is invented by several Wall Street finance executives.
- Its goal is to revolutionize the inter-banking payment networks and the project is supported by many international banks (more than 100 banks and still growing).
- XRP is based on a decentralized ledger to track and verify all transactions (similar to Bitcoin), but it is backed by a central group maintaining the network.
- The average transaction speeds are < 4s. (while Bitcoin transaction times can take as long as few hours!).
- Ripple is now third largest cryptocurrency.
- Ripple coin is 100% legal and it is protected from the criminal activities and the black market.
In case you are not convinced yet, please read this article by Richard Gordon on Seeking Alpha (free registration required, no strings attached).
Here is why I think now is a good time to “jump in”. Just look at the following graph from google trends (click on image to open):
Every time I see something like that I get excited! This is a beginning of a new google trend. This means that people are just starting getting interested in the ripple coin. The price is still low and the potential upside is huge!
A “wallet” is a tool which is connected to an online decentralized ledger (database) and it is used to store, send, or receive digital currency. In case of XRP we will download a free desktop wallet (Win, Mac or Linux) from Rippex.net.
Step 2: Creating a free wallet account
After download is finished, follow the usual installation routine and make sure you have a free USB stick where we will place a backup copy of you wallet. Follow the instructions from the video below to create your free wallet account.
IMPORTANT!: Do not forget to make a backup copy of your wallet information. Grab your USB stick make a new .txt file called “myxrpwallet.txt” and save your own secret keys:
Passphrase: ********** (make sure you will remember this!)
Ripple address: rKhhe*********************gqaKhz
Secret key: sh**************************MjA4BJ
Additionally you can also store your wallet file onto your USB stick. You can find the location of your wallet file during authorization at rippex tool startup:
For additional security you can zip it with zip password enabled (or even use external encryption methods like VeraCrypt) and put it in your secret place.
Step 3: Buying your first XRP coins
There are many different ways to purchase your first XRPs and transfer them into your wallet. The two fastest ways I know are:
A. Worldwide: Using a credit card and an online exchange services like: Changelly.com
B. Worldwide: If you already have some other crypto coins you can exchange them on an exchange like : Binance.
In example below we will use exchange portal called Changelly.com.
Step 3a: Go to Changelly.com and subscribe (it’s free). Then enter desired value in USD you want to convert to XRP coins. And press “Exchange”.
Then press “Next”.
Enter your private XRP wallet address and press “Next”.
Check again your address and confirm the transaction.
Click “Pay with Visa/Mastercard”.
Step 3b: IMPORTANT: At this point make sure you will enter your real valid telephone number! They will call you and will ask some simple questions like your name or last digits of your CC card to validate your identity. They always call within 5minutes so make sure your telephone is near you!
Enter your Credit Card info and press continue.
At this point you need to wait until someone will call you for verification.
After short and quick verification your transaction should be completed within few minutes:
Step 3c: Now the system needs to exchange the USD to XRP and send it to your Ripple wallet. This process can take few minutes to few hours! Don’t panic if you will not see anything happen within first 2h!
Remember that this transaction is based on online blockchain and needs to be verified. You can check the status of transaction verification using any external blockchain viewer like: blockexplorer.com. You need to wait until at least two confirmation will happen.
After transaction is successfully finalized you will see the following confirmation:
Step 3d: Now you can go back to your Rippex wallet tool and verify if transaction took place.
Step 3e: Note that most exchanges have daily and weekly limitations! This means that as a new user your transaction limit is $100 a day or you will need to wait 4 days until next transaction can be performed. Each exchange portal has its own policy, so always read the “small letters” and footnotes:
Step 4: After you have acquired sufficient amount of XRP coins you can sit back, relax and watch the price of the Ripple coin (hopefully) rise into infinity;) For price monitoring I personally recommend free charting tools like: TradingView.
Cryptocurrencies will become more and more important in the near future. We are now at a transition moment at which more and more people acknowledge the importance of blockchain technology. Seeing the crazy grow of other cryptocurrencies so far, one must ask himself, if “now” is not the last chance to “jump in” and secure his wealth for the future.
The biggest advantage of XRP coin is its low price and huge grow potential. Not investing your $500 dollars and see other people become millionaires over the next few years is much worse than investing $500 dollars and losing them after all 😉
Think about this all and leave your comments below.
P.S.: if you want to thank me by sending 1 ripple ($0.20), my ripple address is:
All the best!
How to backtest & optimize in MT4
Just like me, many of you are using the MetaTrader platform for daily trading using Experts Advisors. However, not many people know how to backtest in MT4 properly. In this short blog I will try to explain you the logic behind the EA optimization process on a MetaTrader 4 or 5 platform. If you do not know how to run the strategy tester on your MT4 platform then there are many places to go like YouTube to learn from. This article explains only the optimizing steps needed to get the best results during the optimization.
So here we go:
- How to approach mt4 strategy tester optimization
- Is 99% tick data accuracy one big lie?
- What level of tick data accuracy is needed for backtesting?
- Putting it all together
Now imagine today is the point where we have drawn a red vertical line. Of course we can not predict the future and the only thing that we can see are the backtested results from the past. So how can we make sure the optimized EA results are not curve-fitted and the optimized EA parameters have any chances of being profitable in the future? Let’s split our optimization process in two steps.
Optimize a given trading strategy on a small historical data fragment, from a given date in the past (Start) until today (End). It is extremely important that the number of trades in the selected period is representative for the given trading system. You need to optimize using at least 10% of the total number of trades which have occurred within history data range.
Test if the optimized parameters found in STEP 1 are not curve-fitted! Yes, this is my big secret magic trick, that I use in my all trading systems, so read and think about the following sentence for a while, let it sink in:
Basically, if I see nice results on a backtest using history data which was never used during the optimization (so called out-of-sample period), then it gives me confidence, that selected set of parameters could also be profitable in the feature.
modelling quality! I was obsessed by tick data accuracy. I spent hundreds of dollars on tools which gave me 99% accurate tick data….but then I’ve discovered the following:
The 99% accuracy visible after a backtest is just a number in the FXT file header!
And moreover what does it mean to have 99% of accuracy? The answer is: it doesn’t mean anything! It is just representation of tick modeling quality for the broker where the tick data comes from and in almost all cases it is Ducascopy tick data. Furthermore in most cases people will use different broker with different tick prices, spread, latency etc…So 99% backtest data modeling is a myth, but 99% data is not entirely useless, read the flowing point.
- You are using MT5 platform and run your optimization using: “Every tick based on real ticks” mode. (Even then, most brokers provide slightly “adjusted” tick data, so no, they will not let you win that easy, hehe)
- Your broker will provide you the real recorded tickdata from a live account. (It does not happen a lot)
- You know how to record live tick data by your self and know how to export it to strategy tester. (Too difficult for most people)
In order to test your historical data for accuracy just run the following simple test:
- Run your (or any other) EA on a live account on a selected broker. To minimize the potential losses minimize the lotsizes of open positions.
- Collect the live trading results for at least few days (or even weeks) in order to capture different market moods and events.
- After that, backtest the same EA using exactly the same EA settings and using the same time period! (In this step you can use 99% modeling or the tick data you currently have)
- See how big are the differences in trading results between live and backtested data.
- If the difference in all critical parameters such as: number of trades (very important), drawdown and profit etc..are not that big, then your history tick data is sufficient to be used in optimization and backtesting. If the differences are significant, then you need to test it on a different broker or using different source of tick data.
- Your EA settings are not curve fitted
- Trading results are also profitable outside your optimization period (in the past or the future)
- There is a good correlation between results from backtesting and optimization and the your live account
P.S.: do not forget to like or share this article!
How to trade news
As you probably already know, there are many successful traders that trade on forex news from fundamental point of view. However, most of the traders get the concept of ‘news trading’ totally wrong and lose their money time after time. This is because they base their trading decision only on the fundamental market laws and fundamental analysis.
My statement: Trading by blindly following fundamental analysis is totally wrong!
In this article I will show you:
- Why fundamental analysis does not work like people think it should work
- How to trade news properly
- How to automatically disable EA’s during major high impact news event
So let’s look at a real life example on what market does when FED announces a rate hike. For this example let’s look at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) that took place on 15 March 2017 (Ms. Janet Yellen in the figure above). I have selected this example because March 15 was a very interesting day for a currency trader (but also for me personally). Below a screenshot from ForexFactory calendar:
On that day, during a press conference at 8pm (CET time) the FOMC announced a new rate hike. The basic laws of economics say:
“When US interest rate goes up = dollar should go up = EUR/USD should go down”
So let’s look at the EUR/USD chart on that day in the evening:
And the EUR/USD went up?? I guess many traders who were hoping to get few pips of profit on a stronger dollar were quite surprised 😉 So what happened here? Apparently the market did not read the book called: “basic economics” and the EUR/USD pair went up instead of down?
And this is where the most traders are losing their money. Because one thing that most traders do not know, is that there is a huge difference between ‘expected news‘ and ‘unexpected news‘ events! When analyzing the EUR/USD price movement on that evening, we can see that two different news events happened almost simultaneously:
A. Expected news: (News with already expected outcome) FED raised the US dollar interest rate during the FOMC meeting. This was ‘expected news’, because long before this news event, in previous weeks and days, there were many market rumors, that Ms. Janet Yellen from FED will finally announce another ‘rate hike’ during her next presentation. And the most of analysts gave up to 80% of probability of rate hike long before the FOMC meeting took place. Basically this interest rate raise was already ‘priced in’ by the market and all smart traders long before the news event on March 15.
B. Unexpected news: (News with unexpected outcome) On the other continent (in Europe), Dutch parliament election were taking place (in The Netherlands). And there was a big element of surprise related to that event, because nobody knew if Dutch populist party PVV would win or lose those elections. In case of winning this would be a very negative signal for Euro-zone and Euro would drop very hard. However it turned well for all of us (especially me since I am an emigrant living in The Netherlands) and the populist party PVV did not win those elections! On that day I was watching the Dutch television with my laptop on my lap and just in few seconds after first official exit-poll was announced the Euro went up like crazy!
Very important note: in most cases the ‘unexpected news‘ is not a direct ’cause’ of the market move, but rather just a catalyst of market forces that were already in place. Secondly, the only thing, we can relay on is the correlation between the ‘news’ and the ‘move’! The market moves only when the ‘news’ is supported by market sentiment (the collective herd behavior of all market participants). This is the most important sentence on this whole page. Please try to understand this, and you will become much better trader. So, in the example above, the EUR/USD went up, because the unexpected and positive news was supported by the overall bullish bias for the euro. This market behavior is can be explained by the concept called ‘teflon euro‘ (just google for it), which means that in most cases, the market will use any valid excuse (any positive news) to buy euro.
2. How to trade the market news?
Strategy A: scalping the market directly after the news:
One way to trade the news, is to trade only on ‘unexpected news’ (news with an unexpected outcome) and to enter the market very fast! In most cases the first reaction to the news comes just in minutes/seconds after the news release. After few minutes you are already too late to scalp the market and there is a big risk of pull-back since people will take their profits after just few pips of gain. In order to be very fast you need to have access to real-time information. One platform I can recommend is RANsquawk forex news service. This service provides real-time ‘no lag’ information updates, so you can trade all news without any delays and never miss any trading opportunity. If you want to read more about this service read more here: RANsquawk
Strategy B: Trading the correlations between the news and market moves:
This is my favorite news trading strategy, since it is easy, clear and effective way for trading the news. In this strategy you can trade the news in direction dictated by the prediction which is based on the previous news releases and previous market moves. So for example when a given forex pair move (after a news release with a given outcome) was the same or similar for all previous 10 news events, then you have an increased chance that it will happen again! Here is how it can be done:
Step 1: Find a high impact news event
In order to find all high impact news events, you can go to free ForexFactory calendar and select only red flagged news. Then select any news event you want to trade o
In this example let’s select ‘Michigan Customer Sentiment = UoM’ as our target.
Step 2: Find a correlation between the news and market move
This steps requires an external tool (see automatic selection below) or some data mining skills (manual selection).
Manual selection: For example you can use forex calendar filtering option to filter out only the selected news event for the past 12 months. Then you need to open a chart (on your MT4 platform) of the related currency (currency pairs) and mark all dates where this particular news event has happened. Then you need to seek for market reaction correlations by looking in which direction market has moved directly and within few hours after the news release.
Automatic selection: There are many tools that do this work for you. I’m using the “events & trade” portal which is available on my broker: markets.com. Here is how it looks like:
This simple web portal not only tells you what are the best upcoming news trading opportunities, but it also analyses up to 12 previous outcomes and it calculates probability of profitable trading in direction dictated by the news. You can read more about this tool here: Visit “events & trade” website.
For this example we will target USDCAD pair which has a 80% probability (for a profitable trade) in case when the ‘Actual’ value provided during the news will be higher than the ‘Consensus’ (the forecast) value. See figure below:
Step 3: Setup your trade and wait for the news.
So in this example we can tell upfront that when the ‘UoM Consumer Sentiment’ news will result in a ‘Actual value > Consensus’, then we have a big chance that USD/CAD pair will move in the ‘BUY’ direction within 4h and 12h time-frames. Lets see what happened in this case:
In this case the outcome from news was positive, since 98.0 > 97.1. Let’s see what was th reaction on USD/CAD on this positive news:
So in this case the price moved as predicted, this would result in a profitable trade!
If you would like to avoid trading during the news releases and avoid fast market moves, you can look at my EaBlocker indicator. I have created a simple indicator that allows you to automatically disable AutoTrading during given hours and also on major market news releases.
You can read more about it on the product page: HERE.
– To summarize we can say that forex market (like any other market) is driven by not more than three factors:
- Long term forces dependent on global fundamental view (e.g: policy of central banks)
- Short term rallies on unexpected news events (e.g: Geo-political events)
- Market sentiment (I will discuss this in one of my next posts)
– For successful trading during news events you can use one of the following strategies:
- Fast market scalping directly after news release See RANsquawk website.
- Trading long term news to market response based on previous news to price moves correlations See “events & trade” website.
– If you want to avoid trading during news, you can use my EaBlocker indicator.
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Stocks to buy now!
||Microsoft Corp||MSFT||Strong Buy||See TipRanks|
|8||Micron||MU||Strong Buy||See TipRanks|
|7||Advanced Micro Devices||AMD
||Moderate Buy||See TipRanks|
||Strong Buy||See TipRanks|
|8||FB||Strong Buy||See TipRanks|
|8||Bank Of America
||BAC||Moderate Buy||See TipRanks|
On this blog I will share with you every single step I take while selecting only the good stocks to buy. Note that ‘buy’ is the main keyword here since this strategy covers only the good stocks that are worth buying and the companies that are worth investing in.
Here is how to find the best stocks to purchase today
To find the best performing stocks right now, you need to learn the following:
It is very simple. There are three main reasons why it is better to be bullish about stock market then to look for selling opportunities (and go ‘short’):
- Looking at the past performance of stock indices like S&P500, Nasdaq or Dow Jones, you can easily see that when looking at the long term period the stock prices are ‘continuously’ rising. The current bull market conditions is 8years old (anno. 2017). Of course this is true for periods ‘out side’ big depressions and markets crashes, which also happen periodically.
- The second reason is that the technology and world wide economy are growing in an accelerating way. And it is much more ‘comfortable’ to think that the best companies like: Google, Amazon or Microsoft will continue to grow in the long term.
- You can enjoy yearly dividend payouts! The majority of the best performing stocks pay out a nice yearly dividend up to 4%!
While looking for the best stocks, you can get lost in the amount of the provided information. There are so many websites, paid portals, blogs, smartphone apps..it is hard to say which source is worth to follow and which is pure garbage. So let’s say that I have already been in this situation and I’ve already prepared a list of best places you can go to learn about the best stocks to buy. So below is my top 3:
Those three websites will give you access to the best quality stock market investing ideas and the best stock picks you can get for free. Those investing recommendations are provided by the professional hedge funds managers, Wall Street analysts and also financial bloggers. Now the ‘only’ thing you need to do is to select few high quality companies to invest in;) Reading all those articles will give you a good idea about what are the best performing companies and what stocks you should avoid buying.
So the biggest problem is that most people will get lost in the huge amount of the provided information. Since it is impossible and very unwise to follow every single stock recommendation, we need to do our own post-analysis and see what stocks are really worth buying. See next point.
- The overall fundamental picture of market mood and future opportunities
- P/E ratio
- Pervious earnings (previous performance) and earnings estimations
- Stock price trends and sentiments (on chart technical analysis)
All experienced traders say: “in order to be successful in trading you need to become one with the market”. This basically means that you need to be fully ‘synchronized’ with the market events and market moods = you need to be 100% up to date. Note that there are two things you need to master in your trading: Fundamental Analysis and Market Sentiments (based on technical analysis). Those two, are the most powerful tools you can use while forecasting the next market movement. You need to learn how to do your own analysis or know where to go to find this information. Lucky for us, there are many places on the net that are providing a full day by day market coverage, my favorite two are:
Price to Earnings (per share) ratio is the most basic measure that can tell you if a given stock is cheap or expensive at a given price.
P/E= Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share
There are many places, books and online video’s that are explaining this concept (click here). If you want to know how to select best stocks to buy you need to learn about the basic concept behind P/E figure and how it can affect buying decision. The ‘rule of thumb’ says that a stock with a lower value of P/E is considered ‘cheaper’ than one with a high P/E figure. Just google it if you want to learn more.
Previous earnings and earnings estimations:
Earnings estimations for a given company can be also a very powerful tool you can use to predict the next stock price movement. Previous earnings can tell you if a given company is doing OK or not so well. My personal recommendation is to always invest your money into companies that show a stable grow in quarterly earnings and gross profit. You can go to yahoo finance website to see the previous earning numbers and also estimated figures. Below an example of Amazon stock:
The second way to tell given stock is worth buying, is to look on earnings estimation numbers:
When estimated number is much lower than actual or previous number, there is a chance the stock price will drop during or even few weeks before the earnings date (the date when companies release their earnings numbers). The rule of thumb tells us: “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In practice it means that if you expect good earnings numbers of given company you should buy the stock far before the official earnings date.
Stock price trends and sentiments:
There is one important thing you should know when trading stocks, forex or commodities: fundamental analysis (predictions done by professional market analysts) does not work 100% of time, it works only when market is in a trend. There are many, many reasons for that, but the most important one is that the price movement forecast is always lagging behind the market sentiment. Quote from Seeking Alpha article:
So in order to become successful trader you need to learn how to recognize when fundamental analysis aligns with a market trend or sentiment. The good start would be to master the basics of ‘Elliot wave‘ theory.
4. How to find great stocks just in 5 minutes each day
I can imagine that stock trading can be a little bit overwhelming for a beginner. Or that there are many people with full-time job and families with small kids, that do not have time for continuous reading, watching market news and doing market analysis. Therefore I have personally selected two options that you can use for your daily trading, when your trading time is very limited:
TipRanks search result looks like:
For each single stock you a considering to buy this great tool can tell you the following:
- The current ‘buy/sell or hold’ recommendation of the best market analysts
- The mid/long term price range prediction
- The insider buy/sell actions (extremely strong buy or sell signals)
- Financial bloggers recommendations
- The current recommendation of all experts who have already successfully predicted price movement in the past for a given stock
- Currently trending stocks
- Many many more….